Eine alte Klinkenputzer-Weisheit besagt: Den Wert bestimmt der Käufer. Und das ist ja so wahr. Sowohl bei Tupperware, Gebrauchtwagen, Domainnamen oder Social-Communities. Microsoft hat den Wert Facebooks im vergangenen Jahr in galaktische Höhen getrieben. Durch die Übernahme von putzigen 1,6 Prozent für 240 Mio. Dollar lag der “Buchwert” von Facebook über Nacht bei 15 Milliarden Dollar. So manchen plagten die Sorgen über eine neue Internet-Blase.
Obwohl über die Beweggründe Microsofts viel spekuliert wurde, schaffe es das Unternehmen doch, durch diesen Kunstgriff andere Interessenten schnell und nachhaltig zu demoralisieren, ohne selbst eine hohe Beteiligung eingehen zu müssen. Als Grundlage der Vereinbarung sicherte sich Microsoft das Recht, bis zum Jahr 2011 Werbung an Facebook zu verkaufen. Inzwischen weiß man: Ein nicht ganz einfaches Unterfangen. Werbetreibende Firmen distanzieren sich, die Klickraten in Social-Networks sind durch die Bank unterirdisch.
In einem öffentlich zugänglichen Vergleich zwischen Facebook und dem Unternehmen ConnectU beziffert das Unternehmen seinen Wert nun, rund ein Jahr später, mit 3,75 Milliarden Dollar. Vielleicht realistisch, aber brisant. Microsofts 1,6-prozentiger Anteil wäre rein rechnerisch nur noch 60 Millionen Dollar wert. Ein Verlust, den die Shareholder zu bewerten haben.
Seit dem Vergleich in der vergangenen Woche toben die Spekulationen um den realen Wert des Unternehmens Facebook. Ein Kriterium ist sicher Wachstum. Mark Zuckerberg, Gründer Facebooks, berichtete seinen Mitarbeitern in einem Conference Call im Februar, das Unternehmen würde seinen Umsatz von 150 Mio. Dollar im vergangenen Jahr auf 300 bis 350 Mio. Dollar im kommenden steigern. Dies entspräche in etwa dem Wachstum an Besuchern, inzwischen 109 Millionen Unique Usern im März.
Doch Wachstum ist nur ein Indiz, was zählt ist Revenue. Die viel zitierte “Monetarisierung des Social Webs” scheint nicht zu gelingen. Es mangelt an Werbeformen, die vom User angenommen werden. Statt dessen sucht man Heil in blinder Expansion. Was ist ein User wert? Facebook besitzt laut eigenen Angaben 80 Millionen aktive Mitglieder. Wie viel kann aus ihnen erwirtschaftet werden? Mr. Zuckerberg gab die Antwort selbst: Bisher 150 Mio. Dollar pro Jahr. Also in etwa 2 Dollar pro User pro Jahr. Wohlwollend gerechnet.
Selbst der von Facebook postulierte Unternehmenswert von 3.75 Milliarden Dollar scheint mir eher eine Wunschvorstellung zu sein, bewertet er einen User mit rund 50 Dollar. Um diese zu erwirtschaften bedürfe es momentan rund 25 Jahre. Ein Unternehmenswert von 15 Milliarden Dollar berechnet einen User sogar mit 185 Dollar (92 Jahre). Zugegeben Rechenspielereien, zeigen sie doch die ganze Absurdität dieser Wertdebatte. Die Angst vor einer erneuten Internet-Blase scheint mir jedoch nicht gänzlich unbegründet.
Und was ist Facebook jetzt wirklich wert?
Ach, fragen Sie doch den Klinkenputzer. Oder den Spekulanten.
Ich kenn deine Weisheit unter “Den Preis bestimmt der Käufer”. Stimmt aber sicher. Schon so manches Unternehmen wurde so weit über Wert verkauft, dass man schon am Geisteszustand des Käufers zweifeln kann. Dass Microsoft den Wert Facebooks künstlich nach oben getrieben hat, ist offensichtlich. Für ihre 240 Millionen hätten sie auch locker 30% haben können.
Gruß und weiter so
Benni
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